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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 19

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:35) (No Huddle) 19-J.Milton up the middle to BUF 18 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.06 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model