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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.02 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model