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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 37-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.32 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model