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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 12

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(11:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end to CAR 11 for 1 yard (7-J.Clowney; 36-D.Richardson).

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.99 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model