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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to ATL 42 for 2 yards (29-A.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.38 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model