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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 7-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model