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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP