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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to BAL 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-S.Sims to BAL 30 for 18 yards (37-Da.Bell). PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.26 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model