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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model