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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP