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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 3-J.Jeudy (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.63 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model