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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 2-B.Zappe pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy (44-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model