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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 22-D.Henry [9-G.Delpit].

The Three Options

GO +3.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.56 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model