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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model