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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to IND 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.78 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP