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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 7-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model