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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to IND 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-A.Gould to IND 19 for 5 yards (20-D.Thomas; 15-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.72 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model