Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

(14:54) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at JAX 16 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model