4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model