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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 35

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.82 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model