Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

(:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.86 EP
61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -0.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model