4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.14 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model