4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 10

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:01) 7-J.Sanders 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 10, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model