Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 0

(11:59) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 21 for 11 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model