Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

(13:23) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.97 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model