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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 38

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at MIA 45 for -7 yards (sack split by 92-Z.Sieler and 91-E.Ogbah).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.75 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model