Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 78

New York Jets 15 – Miami Dolphins 6

(12:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.30 EP
73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model