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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Jets 15 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 40-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 2, worth +1.09 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP