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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 13 – New York Jets 25

What Actually Happened

(9:00) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass deep right to 83-M.Washington to NYJ 32 for 20 yards (26-B.Echols).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model