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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 20 – New York Jets 32

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley scrambles right end to MIA 39 for 5 yards (72-M.Clemons).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.68 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -1.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model