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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to MIA 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-52-S.Eguavoen.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model