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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 19 yards to NYJ 26, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model