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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 61

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Hill ran ob at MIA 14 for 2 yards (89-J.Ruckert).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model