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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 64

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:11) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 24-D.Belton. 24-D.Belton right end pushed ob at NYG 46 for 10 yards (52-D.Gant).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model