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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 45
New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7
What Actually Happened
(9:29) 26-D.Singletary left guard to PHI 42 for 3 yards (42-O.Burks; 0-B.Huff).
The Three Options
GO
+1.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.53 EP
KICK
-1.55 EP
- 33% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
- 67% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT
-0.66 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
