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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 34

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers (34-I.Rodgers).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model