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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP