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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 7

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP