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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 14 for no gain (22-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model