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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 81

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to PHI 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.73 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model