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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 49

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton (22-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -2.06 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP