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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP