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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to GB 23, Center-49-R.Lovato. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 43 for 20 yards (10-B.Mann; 28-W.Shipley).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model