Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

(11:46) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to GB 10, Center-49-R.Lovato. 11-J.Reed to GB 16 for 6 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.73 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model