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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to PHI 35, Center-42-M.Orzech. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 35 for no gain (80-B.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.50 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 43, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model