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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model