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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP