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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.39 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model