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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 75

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model