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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 33 for 1 yard (24-D.Stingley). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 1-Q.Johnston (24-D.Stingley).

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model